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File:Global Warming Observed CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel burning vs IPCC scenarios.jpg


English: Shows in graphic form the projected increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels in five of the emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), compared to the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) actual observational CO2 emissions data from fossil fuel consumption.

The graph shows five of the illustrative "marker" scenarios from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The SRES report contains a total of 40 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Between the years 2000-2009, growth in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning was, on average, 3% per year, which exceeds the growth estimated by 35 of the 40 SRES scenarios (34 if the trend is computed with end points instead of a linear fit) (Le Quéré et al., 2010).

Data sources:

Data from IPCC emissions scenarios; Data spreadsheet included with International Energy Agency's "CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2011 - Highlights"; and Supplemental 2010 IEA data; and Supplemental 2011 IEA data


  • Le Quéré, C., et al. (14 June 2010), Recent trends in CO2 emissions, RealClimate,, retrieved 2011-12-04 
Date 2011-06-3
Author Dana Nuccitelli


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